Abstract
Macro background: at present, consumption and real estate demand are weak, and infrastructure has become an important starting point for steady growth. Since the beginning of 2022, domestic economic growth has faced greater pressure, and real estate demand is still weak. From January to February, the sales area of the top 100 real estate enterprises in Kerry fell by more than 40% compared with the same period last year, and the domestic epidemic repeatedly dragged down the recovery of consumption. Under this background, capital construction investment with strong counter-cyclical attribute will become an important starting point for stable growth and expanding domestic demand. The Central Conference and the National Development and Reform Commission have repeatedly stressed the need to "appropriately carry out infrastructure investment in advance". At the same time, the financial post-2021 and financial pre-2022 provide more financial support for infrastructure investment in advance, and the amount of new special bonds issued during the period from November 2021 to January 2022 increased by 1.1 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year. The "two sessions" are just around the corner, and more policy arrangements for additional infrastructure are worth looking forward to.
Industrial boom: policy to increase the layout and co-ordination of new and old infrastructure. From the perspective of the policy tone, in the process of coordinating stable growth and high-quality development, both traditional and new infrastructure will usher in an increased layout. From the perspective of industrial data, at present, the traditional infrastructure construction still needs to be carried out, and the demand for new infrastructure is relatively strong throughout the year. Specifically: first, a series of high-frequency indicators, such as the ratio of asphalt to crude oil, cement prices, and the start-up hours of excavators, are all hovering at low levels, both due to the impact of winter and Spring Festival holidays and another major end demand dragging down the real estate industry; second, the installation demand for new energy has maintained rapid growth, and the new installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic is expected to increase by 36% and 50% respectively in 2022 compared with the same period last year. Third, the demand for electricity driven by electrification of energy consumption has continued to increase for a long time, and the reform of the pricing mechanism has contributed to a moderate rise in electricity prices, and the performance of power suppliers is expected to benefit. Since July 2021, various provinces have successively adjusted the timeshare pricing mechanism, and the peak electricity price has risen by an average of about 50% on the basis of flat electricity prices. Fourth, the new information infrastructure is expected to maintain its investment peak in 2022. The official launch of the "East and West" project and the warming of capital expenditure growth rate of downstream Internet cloud service providers are expected to speed up the construction of upstream data centers. Alibaba's capital expenditure growth rate rose to 90% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Market valuation: the valuation of builders is relatively low, and the valuation of new growth infrastructure falls back to the center. Specifically: first, the valuations of power infrastructure and operation-related enterprises are relatively not low. The PE valuation of Shenwan power industry is 28.4x, which is more than 90% of the historical quantile (in the past decade, the same as), PB valuation of 1.9x; China Power Construction and China Energy Corporation's PE valuation is 14x and 19x, respectively, in the historical 60% PE 70%. Second, the valuation of the new energy sector has fallen back to the historical center. The PE valuation of Shenwan photovoltaic equipment and wind power equipment industry is 53x and 28x respectively, which is in the historical 50x and 60th quartile, while the Citic energy storage industry index PE is valued at 85x, which is about the historical 40 per cent quartile. Third, the valuation of the concept of new information infrastructure is relatively low. Fourth, the valuation of the building materials industry is relatively low. The PE valuation of the building decoration and building materials industry is 11x and 14x respectively, which is near the historical 40% and 20% quantile respectively. The PE valuation of China Construction and China Railway Construction is less than 5x, and the PE valuation of China Construction Corporation is about 8x.
Investment outlook: it is suggested that we should pay attention to the three main lines of new infrastructure of electric power and energy, new infrastructure of information and construction plate. Combined with the comprehensive judgment of the industry boom and valuation level, we suggest that we should focus on the three main lines that benefit from the development of infrastructure: first, the main line of the construction of a new power system, and the performance of power operators is expected to improve. The profit growth rate of manufacturers of consumables and equipment related to new energy, such as wind power, photovoltaic and energy storage, is expected to further increase. Second, the valuation of engineering builders to repair the main line, the increase in infrastructure orders to increase the profitability of engineering construction enterprises more upward support; third, the information new infrastructure main line, the acceleration of data center construction is expected to open up the upstream equipment, software enterprises and mid-stream service providers upward space.
Risk hints: the pace and intensity of policy promotion is lower than expected; the economic downturn is faster than expected; the progress of new energy installation is not as expected; the pace of data center construction is not as expected; the spread of the epidemic is higher than expected.
At present, domestic real estate demand is still weak, the epidemic situation continues to hinder the recovery of consumption repeatedly, and infrastructure development has become an important starting point for steady growth and expansion of domestic demand. This report will sort out the industrial chain and business tracking indicators of traditional and new infrastructure in detail, synthesize the level of industrial boom and market valuation, and discuss which industries will benefit from this round of infrastructure power and may have excess performance in the A-share market.
Background: consumption and real estate are weak, and infrastructure is an important starting point for steady growth.
The domestic economy is facing greater downward pressure in 2022 and may continue to decline in the first quarter; but at the same time, recent macro-control policies, real estate policies and "double carbon" policies have all released signals to maintain stability to varying degrees, and the economy is expected to repair gradually after the bottom of the first quarter. The Central Economic work Conference held in December 2021 made it clear that China's economic development is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations. in 2022, economic work should be stable, strive for progress in the midst of stability, and policy efforts should be put forward appropriately.
The pressure on economic growth for the whole year is mainly due to the slowdown in exports, weak consumption and the decline in the real estate economy. From the perspective of external demand, the fastest stage of recovery in overseas developed economies has passed, consumer demand for goods will gradually turn into demand for services, and the room for improvement of China's export share has been limited, and export growth will predictably slow down gradually. From the perspective of domestic demand, on the one hand, the recovery of consumption in the past two years is not as expected. While repeatedly restricting residents' service consumption, the epidemic also suppresses consumption will by affecting residents' income, leading to the overall weakening of commodity consumption and service consumption. This leads to greater growth pressure on the overall macro-economy driven by consumption. On the other hand, real estate investment will inevitably decline, and real estate regulation and financial policies have continued to tighten in the past year, leading to a liquidity crisis in some real estate enterprises, and data such as real estate development investment, sales, and new construction have declined in an all-round way. commercial housing sales are likely to grow negatively in 2022, which will be a drag on the growth of real estate investment. At present, high-frequency data show that real estate demand has not yet bottomed out. From January to February 2022, the cumulative growth rates of sales and sales area of the top 100 real estate companies in Kerry were-43.4% and-43.6% respectively compared with the same period last year.
We believe that in the context of slowing exports and weak domestic consumption, the policy of stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand should focus on increasing investment and moderately leading infrastructure investment. Different from real estate investment and manufacturing investment, the countercyclical property of infrastructure investment is strong in the long run. For example, in the stages of January to December 2009, April 2012 to March 2013, and September 2018 to March 2019, the cumulative growth rate of GDP current price is declining compared with the same period last year, but the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is up compared with the same period last year. Standing in the current stage of economic downward pressure, increasing infrastructure investment will become the core foothold of stable investment. On the one hand, whether it is the high-level meeting of the Central Committee, or the work arrangements of the National Development and Reform Commission or governments at all levels, they have repeatedly mentioned the need to "appropriately carry out infrastructure investment in advance". On the other hand, financial post-2021 and financial pre-2022 provide more financial support for infrastructure investment in advance. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Finance, the amount of new local government special bonds issued in November, December and January 2022 was 576.1 billion yuan, 101.1 billion yuan and 484.4 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 576.1 billion yuan, 45.81 billion yuan and 484.4 billion yuan respectively over the same period last year.
Since 2019, the strategic height of the new infrastructure has been gradually improved, and the infrastructure investment takes into account the traditional railway machine construction and information + fusion + innovative new infrastructure projects. In the process of rapid urbanization in the past, infrastructure construction was mainly focused on the construction of transport infrastructure such as railways, highways and airports, but since 2019, as China has gradually entered a new stage of development, there has been a significant increase in the importance of new infrastructure construction that helps to improve long-term productivity. Among them, the Central Economic work Conference held in December 2018 mentioned the construction of new infrastructure for the first time, emphasizing the need to "strengthen the construction of new infrastructure such as artificial intelligence, industrial Internet and Internet of things". We will increase investment in intercity transportation, logistics and municipal infrastructure to make up for the shortcomings in the construction of rural infrastructure and public service facilities.
On April 20, 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission formally explained the concept and connotation of "new infrastructure" for the first time, including three aspects: first, information infrastructure, such as communication network infrastructure represented by 5G, Internet of things, industrial Internet and satellite Internet, new technology infrastructure represented by artificial intelligence, cloud computing and block chain, computing infrastructure represented by data center and intelligent computing center, etc. Second, the integration of infrastructure, the deep application of Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies to support the transformation and upgrading of traditional infrastructure, and then the formation of integrated infrastructure, such as intelligent transportation infrastructure, intelligent energy infrastructure and so on. The third is innovation infrastructure, which mainly refers to the public welfare infrastructure that supports scientific research, technological development and product development, such as major scientific and technological infrastructure, scientific and educational infrastructure, industrial technological innovation infrastructure, and so on.
Since then, on May 22, 2020, the Government work report 2020 proposed to focus on supporting "two new and one heavy" construction, that is, new infrastructure construction, new urbanization construction, transportation, water conservancy and other major projects. In the full text of the 14th five-year Plan and long-term goals for 2035 issued in 2021, it is proposed to "comprehensively promote the construction of traditional infrastructure and new infrastructure". To create a systematic, efficient and practical, intelligent, green, safe and reliable modern infrastructure system.
Second, review: dismantle the new and old infrastructure industry map, review 5 rounds of infrastructure development market
Generally speaking, infrastructure projects can be divided into two categories: traditional infrastructure and new infrastructure, among which traditional infrastructure mainly includes transportation, water conservancy and construction projects. investment boom can track the upstream industrial product raw material commodity prices and inventory, mid-stream engineering service providers orders and construction and other indicators; The prosperity of information infrastructure investment such as 5G and data centers can be tracked by the growth of capital expenditure of large service providers. Energy-related infrastructure investment such as Electroweb upgrading, new energy installation, UHV construction and charging pile construction can be tracked through national investment planning and enterprise order research.
2.1 Industrial tracking: dismantling the industrial chains of traditional infrastructure, information infrastructure and energy infrastructure
Judging from the recent fund-raising direction of the local government's new special debt, infrastructure investment has increased the overall promotion of traditional infrastructure and new infrastructure, including network infrastructure, construction infrastructure, livelihood infrastructure and so on. Specifically: first, network infrastructure, such as transportation network, logistics network, information network, energy network and so on; Among them, transport infrastructure includes highways, high-speed rail, intercity rail, airports and other transport infrastructure, logistics networks include urban and rural cold chain logistics infrastructure, information networks include 5G, data center projects, energy infrastructure includes Electroweb upgrade, new energy installation, UHV construction, charging pile construction and other projects. Second, construction infrastructure, such as industrial park infrastructure, affordable housing projects, and so on, the industrial chain is closer to the real estate industrial chain. Third, infrastructure for people's livelihood, including municipal construction, social undertakings, urban and rural development, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, ecological and environmental protection, and so on. We will disassemble the industrial chain of several key projects.
First, the prosperity of traditional infrastructure projects such as transportation, water conservancy and construction can track indicators such as the price and inventory of raw materials for industrial products upstream, orders and construction of mid-stream engineering service providers. First of all, from a macro point of view, measuring the prosperity of the construction industry can help to judge the prosperity of infrastructure real estate investment. The traceable indicators include the PMI index of new orders in the construction industry and the expected PMI index of business activities in the construction industry. Secondly, from the micro point of view, the relevant volume and price indicators of upstream consumables and mid-stream construction enterprises can also help to judge the prosperity of downstream infrastructure real estate investment. Among them, in the upstream link, the main consumables are rebar, asphalt, cement, pipe, waterproof materials and so on. In order to judge the demand boom of infrastructure real estate projects, the traceable commodity indicators include hot coil-thread price difference, asphalt-crude oil ratio, cement price and so on. In the middle reaches, the main construction party is the engineering service provider represented by the eight central construction enterprises, and the traceable indicators include the growth rate of new orders, the sales growth of road rollers, the start-up time of excavators and so on.
Second, the new information infrastructure focuses on the construction of infrastructure such as 5G network, Internet of things and data center, and the performance growth of relevant equipment manufacturers and spare parts enterprises is expected to benefit. As the fifth production factor, "data" plays an important role in improving the efficiency of social production and operation, and the digital economy is expected to become an important new momentum to drive the economic development of our country and even the whole world. the development of digital industrialization and industrial digitization is inseparable from the construction of new information infrastructure.
On the one hand, the communication network is not only the premise of big data, cloud computing and other technology applications, but also the premise of the establishment of other digital infrastructure, so speeding up the 5G communication layout is the top priority in the digital infrastructure. The products consumed in network construction include 5G telecommunications optical modules, optical fiber cables, base station antennas, Internet of things modules and so on. At present, domestic equipment manufacturers are in the forefront of the world in the field of 5G patents. Domestically, the 5G capital expenditure budgets of China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom determine the growth rate of 5G construction investment nationwide to a large extent.
On the other hand, the data center is the foundation of big data and cloud computing. The official launch of the "calculation of the East and the West" project in 2022 will speed up the process of investment in data center construction. Specifically, the Internet data center industry chain takes IDC services as the center, extends upward through network construction to IT infrastructure, and downward connects end customers through cloud computing. Among them, the upstream of the industrial chain is IT hardware and infrastructure, IT hardware is divided into computing equipment (IT) and communication equipment (CT), IT equipment is mainly server, CT equipment includes switches, routers and other network equipment and optical module (optical module is the core component), which constitute the basis of computing power and network transmission. The infrastructure is divided into power equipment, monitoring equipment, air conditioning equipment and generator sets, which mainly provide stable power supply and suitable temperature environment for IT hardware. The core link of the industry chain is IDC operation services. In a narrow sense, IDC operators refer to providing computer room hosting and value-added services for downstream customers. Participants are only telecom operators and third-party IDC operators. In a broad sense, IDC operators also include cloud manufacturers' self-built IDC computer rooms. Cloud computing services are at the lower reaches of the industry chain. Cloud computing service providers purchase ICT equipment to host in the computer rooms of IDC operators, cloud IT infrastructure through virtualization technology, and provide products at three levels of IaaS, PaaS and SaaS for end customers to choose. Domestically, the IDC investment boom can be tracked by the capital expenditure growth rate of large domestic cloud service providers such as Alibaba and Tencent.
Third, the new energy infrastructure focuses on the construction of a new power system that conforms to the trend of cleanliness and intelligence, including wind power / photovoltaic product manufacturing, energy storage system construction, charging pile construction, power operation and so on. In order to achieve the goal of high proportion of renewable energy and "carbon peak and carbon neutralization", to meet the needs of distributed clean energy grid connection and multi-load power consumption, and to promote energy saving and efficiency improvement of terminal energy consumption, the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body is an important starting point, and the acceleration of the transformation and layout of the following links is expected to improve the performance of enterprises. First, on the power side, increasing the proportion of new energy power generation, promoting the installation of wind power and photovoltaic power, and developing high-quality hydropower, the demand scale of related products will continue to grow; second, on the Electroweb side, strengthen the construction of long-distance transmission channels to promote the construction of Electroweb, which can effectively meet the needs of clean energy grid connection and multi-load power consumption, and UHV construction is expected to be speeded up. Third, on the energy storage side, the development of new energy storage technologies such as electrochemical energy storage and hydrogen energy storage is an important foundation for the construction of a new power system, and the demand for products of energy storage batteries and converters is expected to meet explosive growth; fourth, on the load side, the construction of charging stations, charging piles and other supporting infrastructure needed to promote the development of traffic electrification, the development of "Internet +" smart energy system, the related system software business is expected to benefit and promote.
2.2 Market Review: tracking the boom of new orders, the infrastructure market is more significant in the period of weak consumption.
With regard to the statement of "steady growth" in the comprehensive policy and indicators such as the growth rate of infrastructure investment, real estate investment and GDP, we have reviewed the five stages of stable growth of infrastructure in the history, namely, November 2012-2009, 2008-2013, May 2015-June 2016, August 2018-2019, and February-October 2020. On the whole, the growth rate of industrial orders is roughly one quarter ahead or the index of Synchronize, the difference in commodity prices and the ratio of asphalt to crude oil have a certain indicative effect but fluctuate greatly, while the grasp of the structural market of the A-share industry is more complicated. a comprehensive judgment should be made according to the policy boom, profit boom and relative strength of the construction materials industry compared with other industries. The details are as follows:
First, after a clear shift from policy to stable growth, the growth rate of newly signed contracts of construction enterprises basically confirmed that the bottom rebounded, the A-share market began to play a game to stabilize the growth market, and the performance of banks and building materials sectors was relatively sound. On the one hand, from the perspective of industry tracking indicators, since the clear shift in policy, the growth rate of newly signed contracts of engineering service providers has basically reached the bottom, except that the growth rate of enterprise orders has hovered at a low level in 2018, when the growth rate of infrastructure investment has rebounded the smallest. In other rounds, the growth rate of enterprise orders has continued to pick up, and the highest average growth rate of the same month compared with the same period last year has rebounded to more than 10% and 20%. At the same time, the growth rate of road roller sales has basically hit bottom and rebounded, with the exception of hovering around-10 per cent in 2018-2019, the other rounds have changed from negative to positive and the highest has rebounded to about 40 per cent and 50 per cent. On the other hand, from the perspective of the performance of the A-share market, within a month after the policy shift, A-shares often play a game to stabilize the growth market, while banking, building materials, cycle, communications and other industries take the lead in the performance of all industries in the same period.
Second, with the start of infrastructure projects, equipment start-up, commodity prices and other start-up / construction boom indicators pick up in stages, but the correlation of cement price is not significant. Among them, from the perspective of industrial indicators, the year-on-year growth rate of excavator working hours increases with the increase of infrastructure growth, and the growth rate of road roller sales continues to pick up or remain high. From the perspective of commodity trend, with the continuous rebound of investment in infrastructure projects, the gap of snail gap Synchronize narrowed or changed from negative to positive, but fluctuated greatly, and the ratio of asphalt to crude oil maintained at more than 1 in 2015 and 2020. however, the profit of asphalt production is under some pressure in 2018. The trend of cement price is relatively more affected by supply, which is relatively weak in the three rounds of 2012-2013, 2015 and 2020, but continues to rise and hit a new high under the contraction of production and supply at the wrong peak in 2018.
Third, from the performance of the A-share market industry, in the stable growth stage of weak consumption, the excess performance and sustainability of the infrastructure industry chain is relatively stronger. Structurally, the infrastructure industry chain is more cost-effective in the stage of weak domestic consumption, especially in the two stages of sustained and rapid growth of infrastructure investment driven by "4 trillion" investment after 2008, limited consumption scenario after the epidemic in 2020, and increased construction investment after the epidemic in 2020. Construction materials, power equipment, machinery and equipment and other industries related to the infrastructure industry chain ranked among the top growth rates of all industries. And there is still a sustained excess performance in the medium-term period 3-6 months after the policy shift.
III. Outlook: pay attention to the three main lines of new energy infrastructure, new information infrastructure and engineering builders
This round of policy clearly turned to "steady growth" when the "six stability" and "six guarantees" were mentioned again at the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on December 6, 2021, and the Central Economic work Conference on December 8-10, 2021 again mentioned that "adhere to economic construction as the center." in the context of repeated epidemics and weak recovery in consumption, the market's expectation of stable growth in infrastructure has been strengthened day by day. However, during the period from January to February after the beginning of the year, under the influence of winter and Spring Festival holidays, the progress of construction was relatively slow, superimposed by the drag of another major terminal demand on the real estate industry. A series of indicators, such as the growth rate of road roller sales, the duration of excavator construction, the ratio of asphalt to crude oil, and cement prices, are still hovering at a low level. The market is still in the game policy expectations of the infrastructure industry chain, but there is not yet a clear project landing to promote the performance expectation of the entangled stage.
Looking forward to the whole year, we believe that the rebound in the growth rate of infrastructure investment can be expected. In the process of co-ordinating stable growth and high-quality development, both traditional and new infrastructure will usher in an increased layout. Among them, the traditional infrastructure investment is larger and is expected to take the lead in driving the growth of infrastructure investment, while the new infrastructure focuses more on improving long-term production efficiency. focus on clean energy as the main body of power infrastructure construction and data center as the representative of information infrastructure construction. In the A-share market, specific attention should be paid to the following three main lines:
First, pay attention to the main line of new power system construction, the performance of power operators, wind power photovoltaic related consumables and equipment manufacturers are expected to be further improved. On the one hand, the performance growth of power operators is expected to continue to improve, mainly due to the long-term sustained increase in electricity demand and the recent electricity price market-oriented reform to raise the electricity price hub. Since the NDRC issued the notice on further improving the timeshare electricity price mechanism in July 2021, the provincial timeshare electricity price policy has been implemented one after another, and the terminal electricity price will rise moderately. At present, the PE valuation of the power industry (Shenwan secondary industry) is 28x, which is in the 99% quantile of the past decade, while the PB valuation of the industry is 1.9x, which is near the 79% quantile of the past decade. On the other hand, the performance of the new energy sector is expected to continue to increase, which will further open the upward valuation space, specifically: (1) in terms of wind power, the wind power unit and the core components of offshore wind power are more flexible upward. During the 14th five-year Plan period, the domestic wind power market entered the stage of supply and demand creation. With the decline of large-scale wind turbines and the increase of the rate of return on investment in wind power projects, the bidding volume of domestic wind turbines in 2021 is obvious, and the bidding volume for the whole year of 2021 is expected to reach 60GW or above, doubling the growth rate compared with the same period last year. Among them, offshore wind power has the advantages of not occupying land and being close to the load center. With the rapid decline of cost, offshore wind power is gradually parity, which is expected to become a subdivision of wind power industry with relatively high demand growth. (2) in the aspect of photovoltaic, the development trend of N-type battery, module and inverter is relatively dominant. With the release of silicon supply and the emergence of a large number of reserve photovoltaic projects, the domestic installed demand is expected to be about 78GW in 2022, and the year-on-year growth rate in 2023 is expected to reach 20% or more. In the context of rapid demand growth, it is recommended to pay attention to segments of industries with clear development trends and relatively good competition patterns, such as large silicon wafers, N-type batteries, tracking bracket penetration and component market concentration. At present, the valuation of the industry has returned to the central level, and the PE valuations of the photovoltaic equipment and wind power equipment industry (Shenwan secondary industry) are 53x and 28x respectively, which are about 63% and 50% respectively in the past decade.
The second is to pay attention to the valuation of engineering service providers to repair the main line, and the increase in infrastructure orders will give more upward support to engineering construction enterprises with sound profitability. For a long time, the profitability of mainstream engineering service providers has been relatively stable. The ROE of China Construction Corporation is about 16% in 2020, that of China Railway Construction and China Railway is about 10%, and that of China Communications and Construction, China Power Construction and China Energy is about 7%. The market is more concerned about the growth of orders for the performance of enterprises. With the increased layout of infrastructure investment, the growth rate of new orders signed by large construction enterprises is expected to further increase. At present, the growth rate of newly signed contracts in China has begun to rebound. In January 2022, the value of new contracts signed in China increased by 19.4% compared with the same period last year. Among them, orders for infrastructure and housing construction grew by 67.9% and 12.6% respectively, up 7.7 and 7.9 percentage points respectively from the same period last year. In addition, the overall valuation of the construction industry is not high. The PE valuation of the industry is 11x, which is near the 41 per cent quartile in the past decade. The PE valuation of China Construction, China Railway Construction and China Communications Construction is less than 10x. Therefore, considering the order boom and valuation level, we suggest that we pay attention to the opportunity for upward repair of the short-term valuation of the construction sector.
The third is to pay attention to the main line of new information infrastructure, and the acceleration of data center construction is expected to open up the upward space for upstream equipment, software enterprises and mid-stream service providers. In accordance with the requirements of the State Council's 14th five-year Plan for the Development of the Digital economy, the contribution rate of the core industries of the digital economy to GDP will rise from 7.8% in 2020 to 10% in 2025, and the digital economy will enter a period of comprehensive expansion. In this context, the 2022 provincial government work report has significantly improved the strategic height of the digital economy. Jiangsu, Shandong and other provincial government work reports added the index of "the proportion of the added value of the core industries of the digital economy in the regional gross domestic product" for the first time. On the whole, the new information infrastructure is still expected to achieve an investment peak in 2022, although the investment growth rate of 5G may slow down, but the rational layout and construction of data centers is expected to speed up. From the introduction of the implementation Plan of the Computing Hub of the National Integrated big data Center Collaborative Innovation system in May 2021, to the recent approval of all 8 hub nodes and 10 clusters, it means that "counting from the east to the west" will move from top-level planning to landing. In terms of valuation level, the valuation of the sector as a whole is not high. At present, the PE valuations of the communications and computer industries are 38x and 48x respectively, which are in the 36% and 24% quantiles of the past decade, respectively. Therefore, judging from the comprehensive industrial boom and valuation level, we think that the new information infrastructure with policy support of high prosperity should also be paid more attention to.
Risk Tips:
1. The pace and intensity of policy promotion are not as expected, which may drag down the development process of infrastructure-related industries and enterprises;
2. If the macroeconomic downturn exceeds expectations, the profits of listed companies will be adversely affected accordingly.
3. The installation progress of new energy is not as expected, and the growth rate of performance orders and performance expectations of related enterprises may be dragged down.
4. The pace of data center construction is not as fast as expected, which restricts the performance growth of upstream equipment manufacturers and software suppliers.
5. Novel coronavirus's epidemic spread more than expected, and the restrictions on social scenes dragged down the process of infrastructure construction.
